TY - JOUR
T1 - Structural stability in models of american trade union growth
AU - Sheflin, Neil
AU - Troy, Leo
AU - Timothy Koeller, C.
N1 - Funding Information:
Ellen Fitzpatrick for excellent research assistance, and Bernard F. Downey, Librarian, Institute of Managment and Labor Relations, Rutgers University, for his help in providing much of the literature referred to in this study. Support for data development was provided by John Dunlop, through the Wertheim Foundation, the Rutgers University Research Council and Center for Computer and Information Services, and the Foundation for the Advancement of the Public Trust. The authors alone are responsible for the analyses and conclusions.
PY - 1981/2
Y1 - 1981/2
N2 - Recent interest in trade union activity has led to the development of econometric models of union membership growth. This paper examines the structural stability of two of the leading models—Ashenfelter-Pencavel's and Bain-Elsheikh's--each of which claimed to have captured the primary determinants of union growth in the twentieth century. The models were reestimated using revised, corrected, and extended membership data, and a nonlinear, maximum-likelihood procedure was employed to estimate the shift-point for each model. Contrary to previous studies, we found evidence of a break in the structure of each model. And unlike earlier work that hypothesized a World War II break-point, our estimated point was 1937-1938, most likely reflecting the impact of the Wagner Act.
AB - Recent interest in trade union activity has led to the development of econometric models of union membership growth. This paper examines the structural stability of two of the leading models—Ashenfelter-Pencavel's and Bain-Elsheikh's--each of which claimed to have captured the primary determinants of union growth in the twentieth century. The models were reestimated using revised, corrected, and extended membership data, and a nonlinear, maximum-likelihood procedure was employed to estimate the shift-point for each model. Contrary to previous studies, we found evidence of a break in the structure of each model. And unlike earlier work that hypothesized a World War II break-point, our estimated point was 1937-1938, most likely reflecting the impact of the Wagner Act.
UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/0006315493
UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/0006315493#tab=citedBy
U2 - 10.2307/2936141
DO - 10.2307/2936141
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:0006315493
SN - 0033-5533
VL - 96
SP - 77
EP - 88
JO - Quarterly Journal of Economics
JF - Quarterly Journal of Economics
IS - 1
ER -