Predicting shoreline changes at tidal inlets on a developed coast

Implementation of shore protection measures at tidal inlets in New Jersey has reduced the rate of shoreline change and altered mechanisms for sediment transfer. Shoreline mobility has been reduced to 19 percent of pre-development rates updrift of inlets where new breaches in the islands are prevented by bulkheads or accretion related to human activities. Rates of change downdrift of inlets have been influenced by protection structures and channel dredging. A conversion from cyclic to unidirectional shoreline change has occurred in some areas. Prediction of future changes must be based on probabilibes of human action, calibrated with knowledge of physical processes.